I really wanted to avoid having the work of several years get smashed by someone who wanted his little moment to brag.
Vergeben has a mostly accurate history with a few notable duds. He's known for having many sources who leak information to him, several of which ended up being frauds, and a history of editing and deleting his posts, possibly to make himself look more correct than he is.
Some of his major leak threads:
With those out of the way, why does he have such a spotty history? Well, let's look at several of his previous leaks and see what's come true. (Credit to MeepleLardicle for the majority of this list.)
- He accurately leaked the Ninja Turtles in Injustice 2. He also mentioned Enchantress, but everyone knew she was coming.
- He accurately leaked Groh for Soul Calibur 6, but he also got several details about the game, most notably that a Switch port was in development, wrong.
- He leaked Goku Black, Bardock, Broly, Hit, Beerus, base form Goku, base form Vegeta, Zarbon and Raditz for Dragon Ball FighterZ. Except Goku Black, Bardock, and Broly were already highly speculated (it's about the equivalent of "leaking" the Inklings for Smash Ultimate), the base forms apparently already had other rumors surrounding them, Hit and Beerus had already been leaked before Vergeben tried to take credit for them, and Zarbon and Raditz just haven't shown up at all. He also has a season 2 DLC leak, but considering according to it, all of the season 1 DLC was supposed to be out by July (for reference, as of the end of July 2018, only half of the characters are out), so chances are it's fake.
- He had three Street Fighter V leaks. Of them, one was true while another wasn't even originally his leak.
- He leaked Metroid Prime 4 being developed by Namco, but this had actually already been discovered a few days before.
- He said that DMC5 would be revealed at PSX, This was wrong as it was revealed at E3 instead.
- He parroted Stealth's rumors about a Castlevania revival which has yet to take effect.
- He backed Star Fox Grand Prix rumors. As of yet, we still know nothing of whether this game even exists, but it doesn't seem likely.
- And perhaps most infamously, he leaked some MvCI DLC which never took effect due to the game's failure. (Due to the fact that a bunch of idiots jumped on the hate bandwagon even though the game wasn't really that bad) To date, no one knows if this leak was accurate, and chances are no one will ever know. (Shame on those idiots, SHAME ON THEM.)
- He also predicted the localization of Mother 3, which hasn't happened yet.
So while he has been accurate from time to time, he's also piggybacked off of others while trying to take credit for that, he's edited and deleted posts, and his leaking what virtually every source gives him harms his credibility greatly.
Smash Ultimate LeaksEdit
His initial leak , shortly after Smash Ultimate was revealed, said that the third-party characters in the game would be Sonic, Tails, Bayonetta, Mega Man, Zero, Phoenix Wright, Snake, Cloud, and Noctis. Even for fake leaks, this one was pretty obviously bad, and he later disavowed it.
Five days later, he said that Ridley would be playable and that the game, while still a sequel, would reuse assets from Smash 4. By this point, the Resetera admins had already made it clear that they expected Ridley to be in (and considering they leaked Aces and the Captain Toad port, they were credible), so he wasn't the first to say that Ridley would be in.
In May, he made several more claims. He claimed that a reliable source said that Ridley would be playable, and then he stated that another source said that Simon Belmont and the Ice Climbers would be playable. He also said that, according to this second source, everyone from Super Smash Bros. for 3DS and Wii U would be coming back. He explicitly stated these games when saying there were no cuts. He did not say that everyone who had ever been in Smash would return, and singling out the Ice Climbers is proof enough of this. He later amended this information to say that according to his Simon Belmont source, Snake would also be coming back (which makes sense when considering, as pointed out by others in the topic, it wouldn't make sense for Konami to OK a newcomer but not Snake's return), and there would be Minecraft content in the game (which was commonly speculated at the time). He later doubled down on Ridley, stating that three of his sources (including the Belmont guy) were all positive that Ridley would be revealed at E3. He never said that Simon Belmont would be revealed at E3.
As of the Smash Ultimate reveal, Ridley, the Ice Climbers, and Snake are all playable. Additionally, there are no cuts (which was another common prediction due to the reused assets thing). However, he did not predict that everyone would return, nor did he predict that Daisy would be joining the battle. He also said that Ridley would have some presence at E3 besides Smash, which did not happen. He later backtracked and tied this to either the amiibo or the banner.
After E3, he stated that there would be at least half a dozen more newcomers including Simon Belmont. He later stated that he would no longer leak anything else for Smash Ultimate, only to go back on this and say that Isabelle (commonly speculated, despite what some may say) would also be playable. While the mods deleted the topic for trolling, there are as of yet no indications one way or the other that Minecraft content will be in the game. Only time will tell if he's right.
On August 3rd, he stated that there would be a playable gen 7 Pokemon that is not Decidueye. Then he said it's not Mimikyu or Lycanroc either. (Dead link, so have a Reddit source too.) This is what source A says, etc." stuff, instead leaning more toward certainty all the while refusing to elaborate. Only time will tell if he's right.
On August 4th, MeepleLardicle discovered that Stealth actually mentioned Simon Belmont before Vergben, meaning the Minecraft content is now the only part of Vergeben's leak that can be attributed to him and is all his leak hinges on, unless you count Simon Belmont sharing same Japanese voice actor as Leif in FEH as speculation.
On August 7th, loz18 revealed that Vergeben had PM'd him saying both that the gen 7 Pokemon is Incineroar and that there are no new DK characters. However, both have expressed doubts about the veracity of the lack of DK newcomers, and Vergeben specifically is unsure whether Incineroar is the Pokemon.
On August 8th, Simon Belmont was confirmed (along with Richter, Chrom, and Dark Samus as echoes). King K. Rool was also confirmed, but this didn't really affect his leak one way or the other. Additionally, Mimikyu was explicitly shown as a Pokeball, and Animal Crossing has a new Assist Trophy while Isabelle's nowhere in sight, so essentially, it was a very good day for Vergeben.
A few days later, he stated that Square Enix would get a second character, and some people said that he gotten info from the NeoGAF leak, but he doesn't know that at all. However, now that the NeoGAF leak has been disproven, it's pretty clear that they're not related.
On September 13th, Isabelle was revealed as a unique fighter. Vergeben had at one point said that she was an echo, but he later clarified that that was just a guess and that he wasn't actually sure.
On September 16th he claimed that the gen 7 Pokemon newcomer he had previously mentioned is without a doubt Incineroar. He also doubled down on Ken, and said that if the Square Enix newcomer isn't in the base game they will be included as DLC. This raised the ire of many members of the community, who were counting on Vergeben to crush the blossoming Box theory, only to have him seemingly slant towards it to the point of adjusting his leak to explain around the potential absence of the Square Enix newcomer. Since then, he's become something of a public enemy to many members of the forum, and the recipient of many parody accounts with names such as "Viagreben'', as well as many accounts with ass-themed names popping up making threads with the intent of discrediting him.
On September 25th, a blog post for a Pokemon theme was posted. People who think the music theory is true assumed this meant Incineroar won't get in and went to Vergeben about it, in a not so friendly way. Vergeben responded back by telling them to go fuck themselves, and called out the board's (au)"tism", angering many. He later apologized for it, but did NOT apologize for insulting Tight-Knots, saying he wished she was dropped on her head.