Note: This page contains spoilers for FIre Emblem: Awakening, The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Metroid: Other M.
The Original Theory and ChangesEdit
At first, people didn't make anything of these trophies. Chrom was already a shoo-in, Ghirahim seemed impossible, Palutena was all but confirmed, and Ridley had been deconfirmed within the same direct. They were just random trophies.
Then, something happened. A Nintendo employee Tweeted that people were missing something. The seed for the Trophy Theory had already been planted, but until that point, it was only being used by the people wearing tinfoil hats. This Tweet brought the Trophy Theory to prominence when it was coupled with something else.
At the end of the direct, Greninja was revealed. This coincided with the Gematsu Leak's Pokemon from X/Y. It also stated that Chrom and Palutena were playable. People had been speculating about the two for months, but they also didn't believe that Ghirahim and Ridley would make it in, due to Tingle still being big competition (as well as Impa, as well as the fact that Zant didn't make it into Brawl) and Ridley seemingly being revealed as a Stage Boss during the direct. Up until Robin's eventual reveal, the Trophy Theory would be just that- a theory floating around. Few believed in it.
With the E3 confirmation of Mii Fighters, adding another point in favor of the Gematsu Leak, the theory changed from a theory to a fleeting hope. It was looking like Ridley and Ghirahim would not make it in, and Chrom (Palutena at this point was confirmed), Pac-Man (who was later confirmed at the Smash Bros. round table), Shulk, and the Chorus Men would.
However, on July 14, 2014, Robin (along with Lucina and Captain Falcon) was revealed to be playable, and Chrom was revealed to be part of Robin's Final Smash. While this fleeting hope has been destroyed, this actually supported it more than ever, since people flocked to the next best theory in line now that the Gematsu theory had been flushed down the drain. It is now a prominent theory on GameFAQs, and, as times have changed and more people now want Ghirahim and Ridley, it's seen as an even bigger symbol of hope [if only for something for people to hang on to now that Gematsu is false] than it's ever been.
Another point in favor of the theory is music.
- For Tiki, the song ID-Purpose played. ID-Purpose is a remix of Robin's theme. Robin would later be confirmed. (Note: The music and Robin's confirmation are what tipped the scales in the theory's favor for GameFAQs.)
- For Fi, the Ballad of the Goddess played. The Skyloft stage plays both the original Ballad (which played for Fi) and a new remix. The remix includes part of Ghirahim's theme, meaning that, music-wise, Fi's trophy hinted at Ghirahim as well.
- Pseudo-Palutena's portion played "The Return of Palutena." There was no specific music linking to Palutena (besides her name being in the title of this track), but Pseudo-Palutena by herself was seen as more Palutena teasing.
- Ridley's battle theme from Other M played at the King Kihunter trophy's screeen.
A more recent point (that had originally only been used for Ghirahim) also popped up after Robin's reveal- that each character the theory hinted at was the anti-person of their trophies in some way, shape, or form. (The basic evidence her is gathered in this thread.)
- Tiki is a vessel of Naga, while Robin is a vessel of Grima. To further this, in the final chapter of the "The Future Past" DLC, Tiki becomes Naga in a similar manner to Robin's relationship with Grima in the final chapter of Awakening (while it's kind of confusing what happened there, it's made clear that Grima's defeat, if performed by Robin, is seen as him "killing himself," meaning they have a similar relationship to when Tiki becomes Naga).
- Fi is the anti-Ghirahim in every way. While she is the spirit of the Master Sword, Ghirahim is the embodiment of the Dark Master Sword. Their personalities and actions also make them complete antitheses.
- Pseudo-Palutena's being the anti-Palutena is self-explanatory.
- Ridley's relationship with the King Kihunter is tricky. A group of posters, however, was able to deduce what made him the anti-King Kihunter.
- After the King Kihunter boss battle, Ridley (in his Little Birdie form) feeds off of the defeated Kihunters.
- Ridley's personality, according to the manga, dictates that he's a "social darwinist extraordinaire," while the Kihunters are weak, making him the anti-Kihunter "in his mind."
- Kihunters are a collective hivemind, while Ridley is an intelligent creature.
- Ridley angers other creatures into attacking, similar to how the King Kihunter controls the Kihunters.
RobinEditAs stated above, the Tiki trophy was originally assumed to hint at Chrom, as it used Tiki's Awakening Design, and Chrom was the main character of Fire Emblem: Awakening. However, with his disconfirmation and Robin's confirmation, people started realizing that Tiki actually hinted at Robin more than Chrom, for the following reasons:
- Robin is one of the few characters in Awakening who can support with Tiki, while Chrom is not.
- The above-listed musical and anti-character reasons.
Ghirahim is one of the two characters pointed directly to, the other being Palutena, from the get-go. For the anti-characters reason mentioned above (and,
post-Smash Fest, the music reason), Ghirahim is seen as the character this theory hints at. It must be noted that the only other characters considered viable Zelda newcomers at this point were Impa and Tingle. While Tingle's out, Fi is pretty much one of two characters (the other being Demise) from the entirety of the game that would hint specifically at Ghirahim (and more so than Impa).
And then he got deconfirmed, so who knows what that means for the trophy leak.
And of course now the next common step is being taken- people who still want the theory to be true are starting to cling to Impa. Seriously.
PalutenaEditDue to Sakurai's constant teasing, Palutena was seen as the most likely newcomer pre-direct, and even more likely post-direct. Sakurai teased her multiple times, refused to refer to her by name, there was a leak that's still debated to this day, and, by revealing Pseudo-Palutena, Sakurai pretty much confirmed that Palutena would be playable (the 100% confirmation that he wasn't planning on crushing our hopes and dreams came at E3).
Oh, and, of course, bias made her a shoo-in and all that. We've been over this more than enough.
RidleyEditDue to Ridley's seemingly being confirmed to be a Stage Boss, the King Kihunter trophy was originally what made the theory seem
- Sakurai still didn't show Ridley (minus the tail flash and shadow) or mention him by name (as of July 26th, 2014, he still hasn't).
- Ridley had some very unboss-like movements.
- Sakurai normally disconfirms a character quickly and gets it over with (such as with Waluigi, Ashley, and Skull Kid).
This page isn't for a Ridley debate, but those three points specifically eventually caused people to realize that Ridley still had a chance. When the Trophy Theory started returning to prominence as a way to cling to hope of the Gematsu newcomers not being the final newcomers, people started pointing to Ridley from King Kihunter, both due to the music and Ridley being the only viable Metroid rep (that wouldn't cause Sakurai to start receiving daily death threats, that is).
Despite this, due to the nature of the theory, Sakurai, and the characters themselves, even if all four characters end up being in, it will be impossible to prove whether the theory was actually true unless Sakurai comes out and says it. All four characters could get in, and this theory could just be a coincidence. It would make sense, too. Why wouldn't Ghirahim's theme have played instead of the Ballad. Why King Kihunter, instead of the Queen Metroid, which killed Ridley? Why Tiki, instead of Morgan? While the theory has a lot going for it, it could just end up being a huge coincidence. Only time (and Sakurai) will tell.