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Gematsu Leak

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“

YES!

”

—Captain Falcon, as he destroyed the Gematsu leak

Gematsu Leak

Captain Falcon confronts Sal on the morning of Robin and Lucina's reveal.

RIP_Gematsu_leak

RIP Gematsu leak

The end of the Gematsu Leak.

One of the more controversial subjects on the board, an alleged leak from Sal Ramano, The owner of the Gematsu.Com website regarding possible newcomers for Super Smash Bros. for Wii U/3DS.

On July 14, 2014, after more than a year of controversy and bloodshed, both the reveal that Chrom will not be a playable character and the fourth leak completely missing the mark tipped the scales in the favor of those against the infamous leak, but only time will tell its true fate... and while Shulk is playable, the Chorus Men aren't.

So, what's this mean?

Well, the majority of the people now believe in either the entire leak being a series of lucky guesses or the middle ground (see below), but there are some who still believe in it.

The Characters[]

E3 Leak 2013 (First Leak)[]

It is said that Sal Romano, the one at Gematsu who received the inside information from the tipper, actually received said information prior to E3. He predicted "Animal Crossing Guy", Mega Man, Wii Fit Trainer, Pac-Man, Little Mac, and Mii to all be revealed at E3. After E3, Sal came forth about where he got this information.

As it turned out, Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Mii were not revealed at E3, Little Mac was later revealed in February 14.

Direct Leak (Second Leak)[]

Prior to the April '14 Smash Bros. Nintendo direct, Sal claimed that his tipper had once again given him some inside information. Roughly that Mii and Pac-Man were still on their way, while Palutena, A Pokemon from X and Y, Chrom, Shulk, and Chorus Men would also be newcomers. With the only newcomer being Greninja, the debates were reignited.

E3 Leak 2014 (Third Leak)[]

The morning of E3... Sal Romano posted on Smashboards that he had received a new leak the night before, This leak said that all characters already stated were coming,  To quote Sal:

"- Last E3 before game's launch (obviously)

- Participating characters: Pac-Man, Mii Fighter, Goddess Palutena, Shulk, Chrom, Chorus Men (none of these are new, obv, so I take he means these are the participating characters for E3?)

- There has been internal debate about keeping Lucas versus Ness, apparently Lucas is likely to get the cut - Nintendo is planning post-launch character DLC, source doesn't like this as he thinks it's greedy"

Despite Sal earlier saying Mii (twice), the confirmation of Mii Fighter reignited the debate once more, tipping Gamefaqs over to becoming pro-Gematsu. Palutena and Pac-Man were also confirmed later on that same day.

Shulk Leak[]

On July 13, 2014, at 10:45 PM, the night before the newcomer reveal, Sal Romano posted the final leak on Smashboards. 

"I got another e-mail tonight.

Its contents:

enjoy my good friend shulk! Classick to expand...That is all." 

Shortly after, he sent another email saying that Nintendo changes plans all the time, but Shulk won't change.

However, Shulk was not revealed. Robin and Lucina were. Furthermore, Chrom was confirmed to not be a playable character, meaning the leak is false, and the Chorus Men and Shulk are back to being up in the air.

Shulk was later confirmed, but between the July 15th issue of Famitsu showing Robin, Robin showing up in Shulk's trailer, and Sakurai later confirming that the character reveal order was planned from the start, it's clear that Robin's trailer was always going to air that day.

Arguments for and Against[]

Arguments For[]

It should be noted that Wii Fit Trainer was never brought up on Gamefaqs prior to her reveal, the closest of reference was a Wii alance Board request which was requested simply as a joke. Furthermore, not a single character in the leak has been  deconfirmed yet, aside from Chrom. To add to that, Greninja, a "Pokemon from X/Y," was confirmed at the April Direct, and Mii Fighter, which he specifically listed, was confirmed during the second E3. At this point, only Chrom, Shulk, and Chorus Men haven't been confirmed. Recently, a Smash Run enemy from Rhythm Heaven was revealed, giving more credence to the Chorus Men being playable. While Chrom's reveal may seem as a point against the Gematsu leak, it is only fair to recall other similar leaks which leaked rosters that were similarly right in all aspects aside from a single character or two. PlayStation All Stars Battle Royale for example had two very prominent leaks. One of these leaks was able to predict some very odd choices such as Toro, two Coles, and Raiden over Snake/Big Boss, all of which became true. Later new information from the same leaker arose including charactes like Kat, Cloud, and Lara Croft. While Kat was actually included as DLC, Cloud and Lara were nowhere to be found. Eventually information surfaced from the producers of the game themselves that a character of the name Dart was intended to be included, with a model, animations, and everything, but was scrapped during development. Whether or not a similar thing happen to Chrom causing him to be scrapped from development, or if the Sal's leaker leaked a fake character by mistake remains a mystery. However, the fact that the leaker changed Mii to Mii Fighter implies that the information may not have been outdated. See below for more details.

Probability[]

Currently, the probability correctly guessed is 8/11, approximately 73%. Also, none of the predicted characters have been disconfirmed in any way until July 14, 2014, when Chrom was disconfirmed (and, furthermore, confirmed by Sakurai to have never been anything more than a concept anyway), and the fourth leak was contradicted.

Arguments Against[]

First Leak[]

Even though all of the characters in the first leak did eventually come, it promised they'd be revealed at E3, which did not happen. The leak can be seen as partially true at this point due to the aforementioned characters and reveal timing.

Second Leak[]

The leaker said that a "Pokemon from X/Y" would be revealed. The ambiguity of this statement, as well as all of the characters (with the exception of Chorus Men) being shoo-ins, caused people to start doubting the leak. Furthermore, as Chorus Men have a very minimal presence in Rhythm Heaven itself, people doubt that they would be added in over more prominent Rhythm Heaven characters.  To add to that, not a single leak mentioned Rosalina and Luma, which is causing some to doubt it, as most of the characters listed were commonly predicted anyway.

Third Leak[]

While this leak confirmed Gematsu for some, it proved it to be fake for others. The internal debate about keeping Lucas or Ness both goes against how Sakurai said he would cut characters for time constraints only and how because the game will launch three months after the leak the roster has been finalized for a long time, meaning it's too close to release for them to still be considering cutting a character. Furthermore, Sakurai has stated that he won't even consider DLC until the game is released, also taking away credibility from the third leak. It must be noted that Sakurai has full creative control over the games. Also, Mii Fighter being listed for the third leak but not the first two has led people to believe that the "leaker" saw the E3 videos and just added on the other "newcomers" for his own purposes. At this point, only time will tell.

Shulk Leak[]

On the morning of July 14 it was proven that neither Shulk nor Chrom were revealed by Sakurai, not only that but Chrom also got disconfirmed by the trailer. The Gematsu Leak's credibility is very low at this point.

Middle Ground[]

With the reveal that Chrom will not be a playable character, some people have reached a middle ground, as opposed to either fully believing or disbelieving the leak. The middle ground states that the leaker simply gained access to both of Nintendo's E3 Smash Bros. videos ahead of time and only truly leaked Villager, Mega Man, and Wii Fit Trainer in the first leak, and Mii Fighters, Palutena, and possibly Pac-Man in the third leak, with the rest of the newcomers (with the exception of the Chorus Men and debatably Shulk ) being shoo-ins thrown into the leaks for whatever reason. Users' guesses range from trying to sound more credible to wanting to regain relevance to a plethora to things, and in the end, we may never know what was truly leaked and what wasn't.

For an explanation of the middle ground belief in detail, here are two posts on the subject.

Supporters and Non-Supporters[]

People tend to believe or disbelieve for numerous reasons. Were they all just safe guesses for Sal and/or his tipper? Do the Palutena images lend credence to this leak? Does guessing Wii Fit Trainer prove him right or did he just catch lightning in a bottle? Would Mii, Pac-Man, and especially Chorus Men really be added?

It's best to not 100% believe it or 100% discard it, at least not without giving it some thought. From there, it's up to you. However, after the third leak despite all of the arguments against it Gamefaqs has taken a general pro-Gematsu stance, but that does not mean everyone believes. Remember that you can disagree while still being respectful, which applies to both sides.

Supporter List[]

Add yourself to the following page if you support the Gematsu Leak.

Gematsu Followers

Non-Supporter List[]

Add yourself to the list if you don't support the Gematsu Leak and/or think that it's fake.

The Truth[]

So, from interviews and datamining, Source Gaming has determined that Gematsu was right - emphasis on the was. According to them, it's likely the leaker had information from extremely early roster choices, as seen by Sakurai confirming Chrom was initially planned over Robin and the Rhythm Heaven icon being found with the other series icons (which could mean anyone, not the Chorus Kids in particular). Basically, if the Chorus Kids are in Smash Ultimate, than no one can deny the leak. But they're not. What Source Gaming neglects to mention is that Miis changed to Mii Fighters, indicating up to date information, and the leaker was confident that Shulk would be revealed when Robin was. Additionally, Sakurai confirmed that Chrom was never more than a concept before Robin replaced him, there's absolutely no evidence that the Chorus Men were the playable Rhythm Heaven character (Karate Joe, Cam, Marshal, and Ms. Ribbon, and the Wrestler and Reporter all have trophies too, plus Rhythm Heaven having an icon while Ice Climber didn't indicates that the Rhythm Heaven character made it further into the game than they did even though that wouldn't make sense if the Chorus Men were that character), and, most damningly, Rosalina, Robin, and Duck Hunt were all shown to be in the original project plan. There is no posssible way that the leaker had outdated information when these three were on the roster from the start. Some people don't want to admit to being wrong. Some people twist what happened to make it seem like Gematsu was right. and some people missed all four leaks, but the only information Sal's source actually knew about was E3 information. Everything else was a combination of "lucky" guesses (as if Pokemon from X/Y and Shulk were actually difficult) and straight-up lies. As a side note, as mentioned above, while Chrom is now playable in Ultimate, this was solely due to fan demand as noted by Sakurai. The Chorus Kids were never going to be and will never be playable.

Trivia[]

  • It is rumored that the leaker lives in the Nile River in Egypt. The leaker is known as Shulb.
  • This page is outdated just like the leak was.
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